The most-traded SHFE tin contract pulled back during the night session, but most downstream enterprises remained cautious about the current price. [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Briefing on December 9, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2601) fluctuated downward during the night session, closing at 315,860 yuan/mt, down 0.25% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) At a press conference held by the Shandong Provincial News Office on the 8th, it was announced that in 2025, the revenue scale of the core artificial intelligence industry in the province is expected to exceed 120 billion yuan, accounting for about 10% of the national total. Efforts are being accelerated to build a full-stack AI industry chain, from intelligent computing power, data corpus, model algorithms to intelligent applications. Currently, Shandong has formulated and implemented the "High-Quality Development Action Plan for the Artificial Intelligence Industry in Shandong Province" and has been successfully approved as a key province for the MIIT's AI innovation task challenge. (2) According to the Passenger Car Association, due to strong trade-in subsidies, the scale of car trade-ins in 2025 is expected to exceed 180 billion yuan; with a 10% tax reduction on new energy vehicle purchases, sales benefiting from this policy will be 22% higher than in 2024, meaning over 200 billion yuan in purchase taxes will be waived for more than 2 trillion yuan in NEV sales. Thus, under the support of nearly 400 billion yuan in tax exemptions and subsidies, the auto market in 2025 is expected to grow beyond expectations. However, in 2026, with only a 5% tax reduction on NEVs, the tax exemption benefits will decrease by over 100 billion yuan, putting significant pressure on the growth of the auto market in 2026. Considering the desire for a good start to the 15th Five-Year Plan, it is expected that the end of 2025 will be more stable, avoiding excessive depletion of next year's growth potential. (3) According to Yonhap News Agency, major business groups from South Korea and Japan discussed strengthening cooperation in areas such as AI and the semiconductor industry, as well as addressing common core issues like the population crisis, on Monday. The Federation of Korean Industries (FKI) revealed that it held its annual meeting with the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry on Jeju Island, a southern resort area in South Korea, to discuss ways to maintain the momentum of bilateral exchanges. Chey Tae-won, chairman of SK Group and president of FKI, stated, "With the resumption of shuttle diplomacy between the two countries, the leaders of South Korea and Japan have met five times, reaffirming that Seoul and Tokyo are important partners." In a statement, Chey Tae-won pointed out, "Externally, we need to address the global business environment and competition in cutting-edge technology, while internally, we face major challenges such as low birth rates, an aging population, and regional decline."

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply in main production areas like Yunnan is tightening, but it is expected that most smelters will maintain stable production in December. (2) Demand side: Due to weak demand in consumer electronics and home appliances, orders have significantly decreased. Downstream buyers are cautious, and high prices are clearly suppressing actual consumption. Limited boost from emerging sectors: Although increased AI computing power and growing PV installations have driven some tin consumption, their current contribution remains small and cannot offset the gap caused by declining consumption in traditional sectors.

Spot Market: Tin prices exhibited a V-shaped trend yesterday. The continued rise in tin prices in the afternoon suppressed the purchasing willingness of downstream and end-user enterprises. Most traders reported sluggish transactions yesterday, with only a few customers inquiring and making purchases.

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